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Elliot Abrams is the Senior Vice-President and Chief Forecaster for AccuWeather. He joined AccuWeather in 1967, and was a co-founder of AccuWeather's radio service in 1971. He is also co-author of the award-winning On-Line With AccuWeather instructional program for junior and senior high school classes. Abrams has earned the accredited status of Certified Consulting Meteorologist along with the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Seal of Approval for both radio and television. His awards include the AMS 1993 award for Outstanding Service by a Broadcast Meteorologist and the AMS 1994 Charles Mitchell Award.

At 10 a.m. EDT, Elliot Abrams was online to take your questions about Hurricane Floyd and current weather conditions. Here is a transcript of today's discussion.

washingtonpost.com: Welcome to an online session to talk about your concerns of Hurricane Floyd. Our guest, Elliot Abrams will answer your questions regarding weather conditions and what to expect from one of the largest storms of the century.

Silver Spring, Maryland: Is there any likely probability that this particular hurricane, if it hits land somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, NC, could continue up the coastline and enter the Chesapeake Bay, causing problems for Virginia and Maryland residents?

Elliot Abrams: Yes, if it hugs the coast, there would be beach battering waves and dune destroying breakers along the entire coastline. Heavy rain would flood roads, and winds would tear out trees and snap power lines. The best chance of this happening is tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Fenwick Island, DE: What level of flooding do you anticipate for the Fenwick area? Will storm suge be significant?

Elliot Abrams: The exact track will determine that. If the storm is offshore, flooding will moderate not last long. If the storm is slightly inland, any place that is naturally less than 5 feet above sea level can be inundated with resulting undermining and destruction of structures. Eemergency management people in the area are given specifics by the National Weather Service as the storm approaches.

Alexandria, VA: Please tell us about Gert, where he's headed and when.

Thanks.

Elliot Abrams: Since Floyd is a "he," Gert is a she. Any any case, IT is still more than 900 miles east of the lesser Antilles. It is a strong storm with 125 mph winds and is moving west, but we won't really know where the storm will end up until Floyd has finished rearranging the playing fielf ahead of it.

Ramstein Air Base, Germany: Sir,

We own a home in MD. Will the hurricane be any threat still once it moves up the coast?

Ben Bailey

Elliot Abrams: If the home is near the beach or along a stream or river, it could be threatened. However, most homes in Maryland will not be severely damaged. People should be ready for power outages caused by wind damage to power lines and trees. At the shore, a very strong east wind can put enough salt water in the air to cause power connections to short out near the seacoast. This would only be a problem is it is not raining at the time these winds occur.

Washington DC: I am new to the east coast and especially Washington. What is the maximum level of damage that this storm can inflict in the DC-Northern VA area. It seems that the cooler atlantic waters and DC's distance from the shore would reduce the factors that factor heavily in southern states.

Elliot Abrams: You are right. Probably the worst thing would be a floyd spawned tornado. During burning of Washington by the British in 1814, a tornado swept through and killed more British soldiers than were killed by actions of the defenders! If current storm track projections from the National Hurricane center are correct, there could be significant tree damage, with resulting damage to nearby structures.

Greenbelt, MD: What amount of flooding is expected in the DC Metro area? Also,the governor declared Maryland a state of emergency. Why? What is the REAL danger?

Elliot Abrams: A storm like this can deliver 3-6 inches of rain in 6 hours. This can flood roads, force streams out of their banks, etc. Winds can topple some trees, break branches and snap power lines. Taking the state as a whole, a near shore track by the hurricane COULD cause serious damage and an "emergency" along the coast. A track up Chesapeake Bay would had the bay shores to the ocen shore threat. Only a far-inland track would cause serious problems in Garrett County.

Alexandria, Virginia: I have friends who will be driving in from Kalamazoo, Michigan. They will be leaving Thursday morning and arriving in Northern Virginia Thursday evening. Do you think their drive -Ohio Turnpike to Penna Turnpike to 270 South to 495 -beltway-- will be severly hindered by the storm?

Elliot Abrams: They will not be affected until they pass Breezewood, PA. After that they can encounter windy and rainy weather. However, the Interstates were designed specifically to avoid most areas that are easily flooded and there are no large trees close enough to block the roads in most areas. So, if they drive carefully, they should be fne. However, they should check the latest forecasts as they go in case there is a change in the track that we do not anticipate now. If they call WKZO or WQLR in Kalamazoo early tomorrow, the station can ask me to update that travel outlook in one of my reports on those stations

Fairfax Virginia: Okay sort of an off topic question...

I'm a newer local storm chaser here in VA. I ofcourse have been trying to hunt down tornados, lightning storms, etc. What is the likely hood of Dennis spawning a tornado that I can photograph in the immediate area? -Reston, Mannassas, Wash. DC- Myself and my partner have started a new team out here and we're looking for good weather ofcourse to photograph and video tape.

Elliot Abrams: Tornadoes associated with hurricanes and tropical storms usually move faster than ones associated with other severe weather situations. Also, they tend to be hidden by rain and don't always stand out from surrounding clouds and mist. This makes them dangerous because they can sneak up on you, but they are tough to photograph. If you are a regular weather watcher, consider joining CASI, an organization of more than 500 weather watchers and originated by AccuWeather's webmaster Jesse Ferrell.

Winchester VA: When should we be worried about wind and rain damage?
I know it depends on where Floyd comes inland. Can you give a location that we should watch for?
I remember Fran came thru here and did carry with it about 45-55 mph. Becasue we are over the foothills we are usually left out of the forecasts, but I know from that experience we are not immune. Thank you-

Elliot Abrams: If this happens, the most likely time would be tomorrow and tomorrow night. If you are watching the Weather Channel or other weather forecasts, you would see the rain approaching on radar and the local NWS office would issue the appropriate advisories. This would happen if the storm hugs the coast or tacks inland.

rockville, Md: I'm wondering if the power companies are ready to deal with, in a timely fashion, power lines that may go down? Do you think after the ice storm in february they decided to up their crews and respond in a more timely fashion?

Elliot Abrams: I cannot speak for the power companies, but the trouble with ice storms and hurricanes is the sheer number of individual wires that can break. This is what takes so much time to fix. Each broken wire must be replaced or fixed. The crews have to make sure power is not live as they do this, and they have to cut through debris to reach the lines. This is not an excuse for the power companies. It should not come as mystery that bad storms hit the area sometimes. In contrast, when lightning hits a power line or installation, operators can often reset breakers or reroute power so power is restored much more quickly.

Winchester, VA: Thanks for taking our questions.

Is there a real good possibility Floyd might go up the Shenandoah Valley, like Fran did a few years back? I remember what Fran did quite well and do not look forward to a repeat.

Elliot Abrams: This seems unlikely now because of the way the storm has been moving. Winds aloft over northern Virginia are from a direction west of south. This suggests a track closer to the coast. However, you'll want to stay alert.

Los Alamos,NM: I am supposed to be traveling to NC in the next couple of days. Providing my flight is not canceled, how can I find information on road conditions to determine if I can make it from the airport to my ultimate destination?

Elliot Abrams: North Carolina is a wide state, so conditions will vary. If you are heading for a coastal area, you should make alternate plans.

Washington, DC: At work we are grappling with a decision on whether to risk going ahead with a conference that has 20 VIP's flying in to National Airport tomorrow at various times of the day. With reports of airports closing all along the eastern seaboard, do you know the likely affect of the hurricane on travel into National Airport tomorrow?

Elliot Abrams: It seems the airlines err on the side of caution. Many flights to Florida were cancelled yesterday and now it turns out the storm is missing most of the state. My guess is there is a significant risk that flights will be cancelled tomorrow. Therefore, if the meeting can be rescheduled, you might want to do so before your guests get stranded somewhere. Sometimes meteorologists are accused of only predicting weather for airports, when in fact "nobody lives at the airport." If you've been at an airport during a storm, you know otherwise! :<)

Bealeton, Virginia: Any particular suggestions for prepairing for a storm of this magnatude. We are in a particularly low lying area of Fauquier County.

Elliot Abrams: Have batteries available for flashlights in case there is a loss of power. Listen or watch for any flood warnings that may be issued by the National Weather Service. Know where your residence is with respect to known areas of flooding, and check whether there has been any history of flooding on roads you nowmally travel. And, be glad you are not at the beach.

Baltimore, MD: Are there different effects to be concerned with from Floyd when considering coastal areas versus Chesapeake Bay tributaries -say in the bay area of Baltimore and the "inner harbor"-. If there area different effects, what are they?

DJC

Elliot Abrams: I am not an expert on each tributary, etc. This kind of question can be answered after researching the specific location and assessing risks with winds from different directions. Your local planning agency probably has historical data on what happened in previous storms. You could then compare these records with storm tracks that are available on the web. Unisys Corp has a collection of hurricane tracks for each storm dating back to 1886. This storm has behaved very much like two storms in the summer of 1893.

arlington Virginia: What is the significance of the size of the Eye of the hurricane before it hits land?

Elliot Abrams: The eye frequently changes size and shape as the eye wall goes through varying regeneration cycles. The larger the eye, the longer you are in it during any given storm. However, one must always be ready for the sudeen resumption of howling winds and terrible teeming torrents as the eye departs.

alex, va: I'm a native Norfolkian, and very use to nor'easters-- and hurricanes! Norfolk is AT sea-level. Since the majority of 'coastal' No Va -with the exception of Old Town- is above sea level; how much tidal flooding can we expect from Floyd?

Elliot Abrams: This is totally dependent on the track. If the path is just inland, the storm surge could put large areas under water. I read somewhere that the area is well prepared for up to an 8 foot storm surge. Rain induced flooding is another concern. Sections of Virginia Beach (Oceanview?) had to be evacuated because of the rain form Dennis

Baltimore Md: Dennis stalled for several days outside NC; is it possible that Floyd would stall out anywhere between now and when it finishes with the Maryland area--I'm leaving for the Midwest on Friday night, and want to make sure this storm will be gone by the time I go...

Elliot Abrams: This storm should not stall because the steering flow aloft is stronger than it was near Dennis. However, some computer models suggest it will not accelerate, and so lingering effects would be with us through Friday. Incidentally, flood watches are now being issued for much of eastern Maryland and eastern Virginia. Rises on major rivers often continue for several days after a big storm hits...while smaller tributaries peak and subside more quickly.

Matt in DC: Hi- I have a question about how they examine these storms. Exactly how does an airplane fly through and into the eye of these massive hurricaines? I know Floyd is about 600 miles wide which I assume means they have to fly through 250-300 miles of horrible wind and rain to get to the eye. How is this done and how is the pilot kept safe? Thanks. I have been curious about this for a long time!

Elliot Abrams: If you think about it, every jet plane flies through winds of at least a few hundred miles per hour on every flight.. simply by flying! The main danger is from extreme turbulence that can shake and rock the plane. Also, intense precipitation is a threat. However, planes are designed to withstand such forces.

Chantilly, VA: Again, thanks for taking our questions...
Employees in my office are already asking about office closing, similar to snow days, for Floyd. What is the possibility of the weather being bad enough to cause companies to shut down on Friday?

Elliot Abrams: It appears the storm will be departing on Friday, but if there is enough trouble from it tomorrow night, office and school closings would be possible. However, if the boss said she needs a report on her desk Friday morning, I would keep writing.

westerly,rhode island: Is there a chance that hurricane floyd will hit westerly, rhode island head on?

Elliot Abrams: Yes, there is a chance... but with the storm 875 miles away now, there is no way to tell until later.

Forestville, MD : When should we expect to see the beginnings of this storm? Are the rains that we are having right now a part of that system? Our company is supposed to have an after hours meeting today with people coming from as far as Baltimore, and may want to cancel it.

Elliot Abrams: Of course, the rain drops are not marked "F" for Floyd, but Floyd is helping to inject moisture into the atmosphere from Georgia state to Georgia Avenue to (almost) lake George New York. Since rain is relatively routine, meetings today and this evening should be okay. Of course, if someone has a wreck because of hydroplaning or a locally flooded street, you'll know I suggested that as a possibility. But... if I was chairing the meeting, i would expectto have it later today or this evening.

Towson, MD: Is the distinctive travel pattern followed by hurricanes -following an NW arc and shifting to the NE- caused by the system crossing different bands of prevailing winds -westerlies, etc.-, ocean currents, or some other factor

Elliot Abrams: The prevailing winds in the tropics are from east to west, while the prevailing winds are west to east around our latitude. Typically, there is a high pressure area over the western Atlantic, and these storms often trace the western rim of these highs.

Silver Spring, MD: What is the storm doing right now?

Elliot Abrams: The storm at 11 AM was at 29.9 N and 79.0 West. or 629 miles south of the White House Lawn. It has been downgraded to a category 3 storm with top winds of 125 mph. It is still moving just about straight north at 14 mph. The offical hurricane track forecast takes the storm inland to near Raleigh and then northest to Washington (as a weaker storm). The storm has been following a path east of the official forecast track, and if that continues, the storm will be along the coast instead at our latitude.

Ardentown, Delaware: From what I'm seeing, this appears to be following the same route as Hurricane Hazel - but I don't remember what category hurricane that was - is this going to be as much of a problem as Hazel was to eastern Pennsylvania and Delaware as Hazel was?

Thanks-
Beth

Elliot Abrams: I was a 7 year old in Philadelphia when Hazel struck. It came in from south of Floyd's position and moved very quickly. It knocked down thousands of trees from virginia through estern New York. Planes that were stationed in New England were erroneously flown to Buffalo for "safety," only to be destroyed on the runways at Buffalo. This storm has a similar strength, so it is a major concern even if its track is different.

THE DISTRICT: my sweetheart is among those from Montgomery County heading down to help with the emergency. Can you help me understand why they're going to Macon, Georgia? It may be to set up communications in a relatively safe place, but how bad is it down there?
thanks for all your advice

Elliot Abrams: There is no hurricane in Macon. I will not comment further because I am not a psychic.

washingtonpost.com: Thank you Mr. Abrams for this informative session. Times up and if you have more questions and concerns, Elliot Abrams will be online again tomorrow, September 16th at 10 a.m. EDT.

washingtonpost.com: Many thanks to Elliot Abrams of AccuWeather for the latest on Hurricane Floyd.

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